Wittgenstein Centre
Human Capital Data Explorer

Explore, select, and download data on the 2023 update of the projections (and past reconstructions - forthcoming) of the global population by age, sex, and education, published in K.C. et al. (2024).




1. Indicators



2. Geography



3. Breakdown



4. Time Horizon




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Scenario Details:

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Basic underlying assumptions used in the projection of future indicators. Available at the country level only. Full information on the scenarios can be found on the About page.





Wittgenstein Centre
Human Capital Graphic Explorer

Explore, select, and download data on the 2023 update of the projections (and past reconstructions - forthcoming) of the global population by age, sex, and education, published in K.C. et al. (2024).





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Left Pyramid
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Wittgenstein Centre
Human Capital Data and Graphic Explorer


Overview

This website presents the 2023 revision of the Wittgenstein Centre population projections (Version 3.1), following the initial projections (Version 1) in 2013 (Lutz, Butz, and KC (Eds.) 2014) and the 2018 update (Version 2) (Lutz, Goujon, KC, Stonawski, and, Stilianakis (Eds.) 2018). Further details on the updates and the revisions can be found in K.C. et al. (2024) and in other satellite papers focusing on the migration component (Yildiz and Abel 2024), the mortality component (Dhakad and KC 2024).

In 2021, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenario community related to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change requested an update of the human core of the SSPs, which is at the origin of this version. This updated version is based on 2020 as the reference year, with adjustments to certain short-term assumptions extending to 2030. However, most long-term assumptions have not been changed. Several changes were nevertheless implemented, particularly in estimating and using country-specific education differentials in mortality and migration.

This new version includes population projections by levels of educational attainment from 2020 to 2100 for 200 countries according to seven scenarios (SSP1-5, SSP2-Zero Migration and SSP2-Double Migration). The reconstruction of past data will be available in the coming months.

Citation

The suggested citation for data and plots from this website is:

K.C., S., Dhakad, M., Potancokova, M., Adhikari, S., Yildiz, D., Mamolo, M., Sobotka, T., Zeman, K., Abel, G., Lutz, W., and Goujon, A. (2024). Updating the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Global Population and Human Capital Projections. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-24-003. https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/19487. Available at: http://www.wittgensteincentre.org/dataexplorer.

R package

You may download data directly into using the wcde package. See the package website for further details.

Credits

Data Explorer Team at the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital:

Concept and Coordination:
Data:
Web Interface:
Collaborators:

Researchers who participated in the development of the projections:
M. Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi1 Michel Guillot Arodys Robles
Guy J. Abel1 Graeme Hugo Richard G. Rogers
Saroja Adhikari Gavin Jones Anna Rotkirch
Alicia Adsera Sandra Jurasszovich Patrick Sabourin1
Bilal F. Barakat Samir K.C.1 Nikola Sander
Stuart Basten James K.S. Warren C. Sanderson1
Ramon Bauer Siew-Ean Khoo Zeba Sathar
Jan Van Bavel Henri Leridon Sergei Scherbov1
Alain Bélanger1 Elke Loichinger Bruno Schoumaker
Donatien Beguy Marc Luy1 David Shapiro
Caroline Berghammer1 Wolfgang Lutz1 Vegard Skirbekk
Ayla Bonfiglio Marija Mamolo1 Tomas Sobotka1
William P. Butz Guillaume Marois1 Markus Speringer
Graziella Caselli Douglas Massey Nikolaos Stilianakis
John Casterline Bruno Masquelier Marcin Stonawski1
Teresa Castro-Martin John F. May Erich Striessnig1
Minja Kim Choe Blessing Mberu Christian Wegner-Siegmundt
Alessandra Conte France Meslé Maria Rita Testa
Moradhvaj Dhakad1 Melinda Mills Olivier Thévenon
Sven Drefahl S. Philip Morgan Edward Jow-Ching Tu
Rachel E. Durham Orlando Olaya Bucaro1 Laura Wong
Jakob Eder Elsie Pamuk Marcus Wurzer
Regina Fuchs Michaela Potančoková1 Brenda Yepez-Martinez
Tomas Frejka Wendy Vanesa Ramírez González1 Dilek Yildiz1
Alessandra Garbero Claudia Reiter1 Sam Hyun Yoo
Michel Garenne Ronald R. Rindfuss Cuiling Zhang
Anne Goujon1 Fernando Riosmena Kryštof Zeman1
Erofili Grapsa Louis Rosero-Bixby Zhongwei Zhao

[^1]: Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital

Software

Web interface built using:

  • shiny: Chang, W., Cheng J., Allaire, J.J., Xie, Y. & McPherson, J. (2018). shiny: Web Application Framework for R. R package version 1.1.0

Additional R packages used for data manipulations and visualisation:

  • tidyverse: Wickham H, Averick M, Bryan J, Chang W, McGowan LD, François R, Grolemund G, Hayes A, Henry L, Hester J, Kuhn M, Pedersen TL, Miller E, Bache SM, Müller K, Ooms J, Robinson D, Seidel DP, Spinu V, Takahashi K, Vaughan D, Wilke C, Woo K, Yutani H (2019). Welcome to the tidyverse. Journal of Open Source Software, 4(43), 1686. doi:10.21105/joss.01686.
  • googleVis: Gesmann, M., & de Castillo, D. (2011). Using the Google visualisation API with R. The R Journal, 3(2), 40-44.
  • webshot: Chang, W. (2017). webshot: Take Screenshots of Web Pages. R package version 0.5

  1. Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5 ↩6 ↩7 ↩8 ↩9 ↩10 ↩11 ↩12 ↩13 ↩14 ↩15 ↩16 ↩17 ↩18 ↩19 ↩20 ↩21 ↩22 ↩23


General:

Data and Graphic Explorer:

Description:

Summary Component Table:

SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
HiFert LoFert HiFert LoFert HiFert LoFert
Population:
Fertility Low Low10 Med High High Low Low Low10
Mortality Low Low Med High High Med Low Low
Migration Med Med Med Low Med Med High High
Education High (SDG-GET) High (SDG-GET) Med (GET) Low (CER) CER-10%/GET CER-10%/GET High (SDG-GET) High (SDG-GET)

Further Details:

For further details see:

Download data directly into using the wcde package